Archive for the ‘AUD’ Category

New Zealand’s dollar surged to the highest since May 2015 after traders deemed the central bank’s decision to cut borrowing costs was insufficiently dovish amid the global ardour for yield spurred by unprecedented global monetary easing.

The kiwi climbed against all of its 16 major counterparts after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its official rate to a record, aping the reaction of its Australian counterpart when officials there lowered borrowing costs earlier this month.

Some investors had been looking for a more aggressive easing signal from the central bank, which indicated it would cut rates at least once more to boost weak inflation. The US dollar advanced against the euro after last week’s better-than-expected jobs data bolstered a view that the Federal Reserve is among few central banks in developed economies whose next policy move will be to tighten.

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Australia’s dollar rose to a one-month high and bond yields rebounded from the lowest ever as the central bank refrained from cutting interest rates.

The Reserve Bank of Australia left the benchmark rate at a record-low 1.75 percent, as forecast by all but one economist surveyed by news agency Bloomberg. Most expect the central bank to resume easing in August after a quarter-point reduction in May in response to a record-low core inflation reading.

“Last night’s RBA policy statement was judged as lacking an explicit easing bias,” said Jane Foley, a senior currency strategist at Rabobank International in London. “While this assessment has lent the Australian dollar significant support this morning, there are sufficient negative nuances contained within the RBA’s policy outlook to infer that the prospect of an August rate cut remain very strong.”

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Financial researchers have indicated that trading across all G10 currencies is similar to the type of trading conducted throughout recession periods. The G10 currencies are the most widely traded globally, these are:

The Australian dollar has been weakening as a result of falling oil prices. “Jawboning” or the false market commentary has also been blamed to be partially responsible for AUD weakening.

The currency is under pressure with predications that the Aussie Reserve Bank will lower interest rates in response to other central bank decreases and lesser inflation expectations.

The cuts are contagious – currencies are weakened. Central banks in Mexico and South Africa are to release policy decisions and Mexico’s central bank is keeping policy rates on hold.
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One of the dominating forex news stories centres around the relationship between the US dollar and the Japanese Yen. We have seen a rally, albeit perhaps briefly, against the dollar when online trading analysts learned that the Bank of Japan has not modified their domestic monetary policy as was moderately expected.

This decision was defended by the governor of the central bank when he stated that there is less volatility in the government bond markets than previously. This announcement led to the dollar declining 1.78 percent in comparison to the Yen during the American trading session on Tuesday. Some online traders and forex brokers believe that this leveraging of Japan’s currency and the resultant decline in equities may attract investment from abroad.
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The Australian Dollar enjoyed an increase overnight as manufacturing industries in China acquired even more of Australia’s surplus requirements.

The PMI figure of 50.4 – welcomely higher than the optimum 50.0 required for growth – indicates that the Australian Dollar’s growth looks set to continue, at least for the time being as China turns to Australasia as a realistic solution for its exponential construction requirements.

Online Forex traders should take heed, however. Current forecasts may hint at a continued positive trend, but as yet it is too early to glean a long-term increase.
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RBA, The Reserve Bank of Australia, decided on Tuesday to keep the interest rates unchanged for the third month in a row. We continue to see strong numbers for Australian employment and growth, and expect AUD to continue being strong against the USD with many carry traders moving to the pair (USD/AUD).

Strong growth among Australia’s trading partners

Economic data for the June quarter indicate strong growth, around 6 %, for Australia’s major trading partners. China, Japan and Korea had a stronger growth than expected, while the US economy grows less than expected.

Economic conditions in Australia

First, the Australian labour market has continued to show more jobs, while employment increased by over 46 000 jobs in June, growing 3.25 % since (more…)

Today we cover two interesting currencies which seen increased volume in the last 6 months – Australian dollar against the U.S. Dollar. Here is a brief currency forecast from a technical analyst point of view.

AUD/USD – Short-term

Over the next 48 hours, make sure to keep track of the following resistance and support levels:
-Resistance to AUD/USD: 0.9190-06, 0.9228, 0.9276-90 and 0.9404
-Support for AUD/USD: 0.9136, 0.9118, 0.9050-75 and 0.8997

Although there is support for the currency pair around 0.9118, the possibility for a break through the resistance at 0.9228 remains. In the short term, most of the leading forex analysts believe in a bullish move, ie. Australian to U.S. dollars strengthened against the USD.

AUD / USD – medium term

We have seen a (more…)