Archive for the ‘Dollar’ Category

Sterling steadied on Monday (September 12) after its first week of losses in four, with traders debating whether the currency had topped out for the moment as they awaited a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve board member Lael Brainard.

The pound dipped last week against the dollar and euro but has broadly done well in the past month as a handful of economic indicators suggested the UK economy was holding up better than expected after June’s vote to leave the European Union.

It was up roughly 0.3 percent at $1.3304 and 84.37 pence per euro by 3.30pm on Monday (September 12).

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The yen strengthened beyond 100 per dollar for a second time this week as the U.S. currency’s bid to break out from a three-month low stalled after Federal Reserve minutes indicated officials were divided over the urgency to raise interest rates.

A gauge of the dollar has fallen more than 5 per cent this year as investors bet the Fed will raise interest rates at most once this year, compared with policy makers’ forecasts at the start of 2016 for four increases.

That means the U.S. central bank is less likely to diverge from the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank, which are boosting stimulus to spur flagging growth.

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New Zealand’s dollar surged to the highest since May 2015 after traders deemed the central bank’s decision to cut borrowing costs was insufficiently dovish amid the global ardour for yield spurred by unprecedented global monetary easing.

The kiwi climbed against all of its 16 major counterparts after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its official rate to a record, aping the reaction of its Australian counterpart when officials there lowered borrowing costs earlier this month.

Some investors had been looking for a more aggressive easing signal from the central bank, which indicated it would cut rates at least once more to boost weak inflation. The US dollar advanced against the euro after last week’s better-than-expected jobs data bolstered a view that the Federal Reserve is among few central banks in developed economies whose next policy move will be to tighten.

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Speculators that are the most bearish on sterling in nearly 25 years may be vindicated by a report published on Monday (August 1) showing Brexit is probably hitting Britain harder than markets previously envisaged.

Sterling declined versus most of its 16 major peers as the data showed UK manufacturing shrank more than initially forecast in July.

Hedge funds and other large speculators ran the biggest net short positions, or bets on the currency’s decline, since records began amid speculation that the Bank of England will cut interest rates for the first time in more than seven years on Thursday, August 4 to head off the risk of recession.

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The yen rose more than 1 per cent against the dollar and the euro on Tuesday (July 26), as traders dialled back expectations of how much new stimulus Japanese authorities will inject into an ailing economy.

The Bank of Japan is expected to announce expanded asset purchases and a rate cut further into negative territory at the end of its policy meeting on Friday (July 29).

Meanwhile the government is compiling a spending package that some sources have estimated could be worth up to 20 trillion yen. But a Nikkei report on Tuesday (July 26) said direct fiscal stimulus into the economy would amount to about 6 trillion yen over the next few years.

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The pound tumbled to a new 31-year low on Wednesday (July 6), at one point dipping below $1.28, on fears over the effect of last month’s Brexit vote on Britain’s property market and the prospect of cuts in Bank of England interest rates.

The pound, one of the main vehicles through which financial markets can express concern about Britain’s decision to leave the European Union, fell as low as $1.2798 in Asian trading, its lowest since June 1985. It recovered to about $1.2891 in afternoon trading in London.

That still left it more than 13 per cent weaker than it was before the June 23 referendum, and about 1 per cent lower on the day.

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With sterling trades seen too expensive, the yen and Swiss franc are in demand according to in-depth research by news agency Bloomberg.

The UK’s referendum on European Union membership is spurring volatility in the pound, making trading sterling increasingly expensive. Banks are pointing clients toward alternative currency bets or hedges that could fare well regardless of the outcome.

Here is a list of analysts’ favourite trades as written in research notes or recommended in interviews conducted by Bloomberg News in recent days.

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The dollar climbed to a two-month high against the euro as traders boosted wagers that U.S. interest rates will rise, starting as early as next month.

The greenback strengthened versus most of its major peers after Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said on Monday, May 23 that he could see two to three rate increases this year, echoing remarks by the San Francisco Fed Bank’s John Williams.

Futures are indicating for the first time since March a better-than 50 percent chance that the Federal Open Market Committee will raise rates by its July meeting.

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The pound rallied the most in three weeks after a poll of UK voters released on Monday showed people who support a campaign to remain in the European Union exceeded those saying they will vote to leave by a wider margin than last month.

Sterling rose against most of its 16 major peers after the ORB/Telegraph poll showed 55 percent of respondents were in favour of remaining in the European Union, while 40 percent wanted to leave.

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Less than two months after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. softened its short-term euro forecast after a central-bank policy meeting, the bank is doing the same with the yen.

Japan’s currency is likely to strengthen until Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda rolls out or signals additional stimulus measures, analysts led by Robin Brooks, the bank’s chief currency strategist, wrote in a note to clients on Monday.

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The latest round of online forex trading news highlights the continued fact that traders are adopting a “watch and wait” approach in terms of any significant movements. Part of the reason for this strategy is that there is relatively little data expected to be released over the next few days.

If anything, the details which have emerged are far from promising. Once again, economic figures released from China have echoed weakness while the recent sell-off in oil (regardless of short-term technical gains) highlights that markets are still in a sluggish position.
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There is still much uncertainty in global markets, with jitters in Europe having an effect on the US dollar.

A recent 5.8 per cent drop in German exports coupled with a downward revision of growth forecasts for the country has had a negative knock-on effect on the dollar, owing to the potential for a weak US export market.

Although the dollar has largely retraced earlier losses, investors are still dovish, with the federal reserve bank keeping interest rates low. The recent meeting of the fed also raised concerns about how a strong dollar may further affect US exports.
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One of the primary Forex concerns that has emerged during the past week is the sentiment that the dollar may possibly be losing its benchmark status as a safe haven currency.

Indeed, this is echoed by certain online Forex trading analysts that are viewing risk aversion from a bearish stance. However, this is a view not espoused by most traders.

On the contrary, it is thought that the dollar will regain much of the footing that was seen to waiver in relation to other currencies.
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The Confederation of British Industry’s most recent quarterly survey, covering the three months to the start of September, puts British business confidence at its highest for nearly seventeen years.

The consequences for forex trading are likely to be an increase in confidence in the pound and a strengthening of its value against the US dollar, which has already been weakened by the US government shutdown.
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Yesterday, Tuesday the 25th of June 2013 reported an increase in American Stock exchange indices.

Daily results of key american stock exchanges such as the Dow Jones, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq would eventually arrive at a positive of 0,69%, 0,95% and 0,82% respectively.
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One of the dominating forex news stories centres around the relationship between the US dollar and the Japanese Yen. We have seen a rally, albeit perhaps briefly, against the dollar when online trading analysts learned that the Bank of Japan has not modified their domestic monetary policy as was moderately expected.

This decision was defended by the governor of the central bank when he stated that there is less volatility in the government bond markets than previously. This announcement led to the dollar declining 1.78 percent in comparison to the Yen during the American trading session on Tuesday. Some online traders and forex brokers believe that this leveraging of Japan’s currency and the resultant decline in equities may attract investment from abroad.
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Foreign exchange currencies change in just a few seconds. This trading option is more volatile than ever as more transactions are currently in process. There are yet economic changes this week as analysts see the potential of short term charts. This would provide further opportunities for big levels to watch out for.

The EUR/USD has low volatility with a low level of 1.3000 so no other expectations are to be seen until this week. The best currency for long-term outlook is the EUR/USD since it still ranges from 1.2800 to 1.3200. Added to that, the RSI and the short term average are on neutral as technically seen in the chart.
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The final week of April has witnessed the Euro tumble once again as the jobless rates in the European Union hit an all-time high of 12.1% awhile inflation slowed to 1.2%; rates not seen since February of 2010.

Of notable importance for online forex traders is the marked unemployment figures released from both Spain and Germany. While the figures in Germany may be seen as comparatively marginal, those in Spain represent the continued weakness of the fifth-largest economy in Europe.
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In the financial news this week, fears of a continued slowdown in consumer spending in the US proved to be unfounded as official figures showed a rise of 0.2% in March.

Although this was the lowest rise in consumer spending since the start of the year, following growth of 0.3% and 0.7% in January and February respectively, many analysts had anticipated no change in spending levels.
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It seems that many investors feel that the euro has turned a rather pivotal corner during this past week. The multinational currency finished off the week of the 21st at a ten month high in relation to the dollar.

This has been interpreted by many as a sign of a heightened sense of confidence in the European banking sector.

There are even rumours that we may see the euro currency test the 2012 resistance levels of $1.35 in the short-term. Nonetheless, the week ahead is of critical importance for the perceived strength of the euro.
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