Archive for the ‘usd’ Category

The pound continued its downwards run on the US Dollar in this week’s forex trading, largely thanks to the release of mediocre Construction PMIs for December 2016. The PMIs measure activity and investment in the sector and are a key indicator of future economic growth.

The news comes as markets nervously await the triggering of Article 50, the device that formally begins Britain’s exit from the European Union. The risk of a second Scottish independence referendum is further devaluing Sterling, with Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon appearing increasingly committed to separation from the UK.
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On 21 January, Donald Trump was inaugurated as the president of the US. Though Trump has been lauded as the most ‘business focused’ president, this has not hitherto materialised in definite fiscal policies. As such, there has been a climate of uncertainty amongst Forex traders and this has materialised in a sense, since January 21st, that the dollar may be at risk.

Why might the dollar be at risk?

The uncertainty about the Trump administration’s fiscal policy has led some traders to worry that this could destabilise the dollar. Often all that it takes is a lack of confidence in the dollar for it to start to fall as traders turn to other markets and currencies as securer forms of investment.
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Sterling slipped to a five-week low against the euro on Monday (September 26), as lingering worries over the economic impact of Britain’s impending exit from the European Union weighed on the currency.

The pound also traded close to a five-week low against the dollar at $1.2985, leaving it less than two cents away from the three-decade low below $1.28 it plumbed in the wake of June’s Brexit vote.

After hitting that low in July, sterling gained 5 percent versus the dollar by early September, as data showed the post-referendum economy holding up better than had been feared. But with parliament back from its summer recess, Brexit worries have come back into investors’ radar and have dampened appetite for the currency.

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Sterling steadied on Monday (September 12) after its first week of losses in four, with traders debating whether the currency had topped out for the moment as they awaited a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve board member Lael Brainard.

The pound dipped last week against the dollar and euro but has broadly done well in the past month as a handful of economic indicators suggested the UK economy was holding up better than expected after June’s vote to leave the European Union.

It was up roughly 0.3 percent at $1.3304 and 84.37 pence per euro by 3.30pm on Monday (September 12).

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The yen strengthened beyond 100 per dollar for a second time this week as the U.S. currency’s bid to break out from a three-month low stalled after Federal Reserve minutes indicated officials were divided over the urgency to raise interest rates.

A gauge of the dollar has fallen more than 5 per cent this year as investors bet the Fed will raise interest rates at most once this year, compared with policy makers’ forecasts at the start of 2016 for four increases.

That means the U.S. central bank is less likely to diverge from the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank, which are boosting stimulus to spur flagging growth.

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New Zealand’s dollar surged to the highest since May 2015 after traders deemed the central bank’s decision to cut borrowing costs was insufficiently dovish amid the global ardour for yield spurred by unprecedented global monetary easing.

The kiwi climbed against all of its 16 major counterparts after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its official rate to a record, aping the reaction of its Australian counterpart when officials there lowered borrowing costs earlier this month.

Some investors had been looking for a more aggressive easing signal from the central bank, which indicated it would cut rates at least once more to boost weak inflation. The US dollar advanced against the euro after last week’s better-than-expected jobs data bolstered a view that the Federal Reserve is among few central banks in developed economies whose next policy move will be to tighten.

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Speculators that are the most bearish on sterling in nearly 25 years may be vindicated by a report published on Monday (August 1) showing Brexit is probably hitting Britain harder than markets previously envisaged.

Sterling declined versus most of its 16 major peers as the data showed UK manufacturing shrank more than initially forecast in July.

Hedge funds and other large speculators ran the biggest net short positions, or bets on the currency’s decline, since records began amid speculation that the Bank of England will cut interest rates for the first time in more than seven years on Thursday, August 4 to head off the risk of recession.

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Sterling was firmer on Wednesday (July 13), trading near a two-week high against the euro as Theresa May was set to take over as Britain’s prime minister, easing some of the political uncertainty that has dogged the currency in the past few weeks.

Traders will keep an eye on who will be appointed as finance minister with many awaiting for clarity on the new prime minister’s detailed thinking on triggering Article 50, the procedure for exiting the European Union.

May has said “Brexit means Brexit”, but added Britain will not rush to trigger the formal divorce proceedings. The uncertainty over whether Britain will be able to retain access to the single market after exiting the EU, along with expectations that the Bank of England could cut rates on Thursday (July 14), are likely to make traders wary of sterling.

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The pound tumbled to a new 31-year low on Wednesday (July 6), at one point dipping below $1.28, on fears over the effect of last month’s Brexit vote on Britain’s property market and the prospect of cuts in Bank of England interest rates.

The pound, one of the main vehicles through which financial markets can express concern about Britain’s decision to leave the European Union, fell as low as $1.2798 in Asian trading, its lowest since June 1985. It recovered to about $1.2891 in afternoon trading in London.

That still left it more than 13 per cent weaker than it was before the June 23 referendum, and about 1 per cent lower on the day.

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With sterling trades seen too expensive, the yen and Swiss franc are in demand according to in-depth research by news agency Bloomberg.

The UK’s referendum on European Union membership is spurring volatility in the pound, making trading sterling increasingly expensive. Banks are pointing clients toward alternative currency bets or hedges that could fare well regardless of the outcome.

Here is a list of analysts’ favourite trades as written in research notes or recommended in interviews conducted by Bloomberg News in recent days.

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The dollar climbed to a two-month high against the euro as traders boosted wagers that U.S. interest rates will rise, starting as early as next month.

The greenback strengthened versus most of its major peers after Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said on Monday, May 23 that he could see two to three rate increases this year, echoing remarks by the San Francisco Fed Bank’s John Williams.

Futures are indicating for the first time since March a better-than 50 percent chance that the Federal Open Market Committee will raise rates by its July meeting.

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The pound rallied the most in three weeks after a poll of UK voters released on Monday showed people who support a campaign to remain in the European Union exceeded those saying they will vote to leave by a wider margin than last month.

Sterling rose against most of its 16 major peers after the ORB/Telegraph poll showed 55 percent of respondents were in favour of remaining in the European Union, while 40 percent wanted to leave.

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Less than two months after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. softened its short-term euro forecast after a central-bank policy meeting, the bank is doing the same with the yen.

Japan’s currency is likely to strengthen until Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda rolls out or signals additional stimulus measures, analysts led by Robin Brooks, the bank’s chief currency strategist, wrote in a note to clients on Monday.

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Eyes on the Euro?

There are a few key points to mention in this latest segment of online Forex trading news.

This week, the relationship between the dollar and the euro remained relatively unchanged after unexpectedly weak American housing data was released.

Analysts had expected the market to rise a single percentage point and yet, statistics showed that sales dropped 1.5 per cent.
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Financial researchers have indicated that trading across all G10 currencies is similar to the type of trading conducted throughout recession periods. The G10 currencies are the most widely traded globally, these are:

All eyes within the online Forex trading market have been focused upon the performance of the dollar in relation to the recent interest rate hike enacted by the Federal Reserve. What is interesting to note is that many investors expected the value of this currency to strengthen significantly when compared to major counterparts such as the pound and the euro.

After a short and somewhat disappointing rally, the dollar has failed to exhibit any real strength. Many Forex analysts believe that this lack of upward momentum signals the continued sensitivity of this currency; particularly in terms of the final two weeks of 2015. However, there may be another reason why the dollar is failing to perform even while the price of commodities continues to fall.
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Sluggish Days for the Pound?

The British pound has seen modest gains over the past few trading sessions and is now slightly above the 1.51 figure in relation to the United States dollar. However, this is now without mixed results.

Recent bank stress tests pointed out that all but two institutions (Standard Chartered and RBS) have passed scrutiny and did not exhibit any symptoms of capital shortfalls. This was unfortunately offset by surprisingly sluggish PMI data.
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The forex market is the biggest global trading market and is increasingly opening up to Bitcoin investors. More and more forex brokers are accepting bitcoin trades and this has grown considerably throughout 2015.

Bitcoin traders are renowned for their high risk attitudes and acceptance of greater risk for potentially larger profits. In general the market for Bitcoin trades has been extremely volatile, while the forex market is relatively stable.
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A considerable amount of attention by online Forex traders has centred around the relationship between the United States dollar and the euro. There continues to be a significant amount of speculation in regards to the monetary strategies employed by the Federal Reserve in relation to the actions of the ECB.

In particular, surprisingly robust employment figures out of the United States have hinted that the Fed may hike interest rates in December.
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Following an ease of momentum concerning the Euro-Zone data, online forex trading has slowed down for the second week of June. On the back of a promising first week of the month, the fears of a possible default on payments from the Greek government and a Euro-Zone exit have resurfaced after negotiations in Brussels broke down.